Sporting Gijon's short-term form (1.67 points per game) contrasts sharply with Eldense's dismal 0.17, and the goal difference gap is stark (+3 vs -5 over six games, +4 vs -11 over twelve). The Poisson model gives Gijon a 1.33 vs 0.50 expected goals advantage, and the ELO ratings show a massive gap (1594 vs 1355). The market price of 1.70 implies 58.8%, but the models suggest fair odds closer to 1.60-1.74, offering modest but clear value.

odds available at 09:45

Eldense project for a very low goal output, and their short-term form and goal difference are both poor. The scoring models make a clean sheet for one side more likely than this price suggests, so the market looks too generous on both teams not scoring.

odds available at 09:45

Sporting Gijon has strong short-term form (1.67 ppg vs 0.17) and a large ELO gap (1594 vs 1355). Multiple models predict fair odds between 1.60 and 1.89, all below the 1.70 market price, and Poisson favours the home side by 1.33 to 0.50 goals.

odds available at 09:45

Sporting Gijon shows dominant form across both time windows with 1.67 and 1.83 points per game against Eldense's catastrophic 0.17 and 1.17. The ELO model prices a home win at 1.60 fair odds, while market offers 1.70. The goal difference models and Poisson projections all align strongly with a home victory.

odds available at 09:45

Both sides have struggled to generate offense this season, combining for a very low total goal average across their opening matches. Expected goals models and defensive form indicators strongly support a low-scoring encounter, offering value on the under market.

odds available at 09:45

Combined expected goals are low, especially with Eldense's very weak recent output, so the models price over 2.5 much longer than the market. Under 2.5 is therefore undervalued at 1.88.

odds available at 09:45