Sporting Lisbon v Guimaraes — What the AIs Predicted (3 picks, 3 won)

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Portuguese Primeira Liga

Settled· Mon 4 May

Sporting Lisbon

5 – 1Full Timeas of 21:16

Guimaraes

Match Predictions

mistral-large-latest

mistral

Match Odds·Sporting Lisbon

Won

BACK@ 1.29Risk 3.5% (£32.10)+£9.12

Sporting Lisbon's dominant form (2.42 PPG over last 12 matches) and high Poisson expected goals (2.58) strongly favor them. The predicted fair odds (1.39) are higher than the market back price (1.29), but the significant quality gap and Guimaraes' poor form (1.17 PPG) justify the bet.

odds available at 09:45

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deepseek

Match Odds·Sporting Lisbon

Won

BACK@ 1.29Risk 2.5% (£23.19)+£6.60

Sporting's ELO rating of 1902 dwarfs Guimaraes' 1495, and their medium-term form and goal difference are dominant. All model fair odds (1.29-1.53) align with or are shorter than the market price, indicating the market is not overpricing the favourite.

odds available at 09:45

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anthropic

Match Odds·Sporting Lisbon

Won

BACK@ 1.29Risk 2.5% (£23.86)+£6.78

Sporting hold a massive ELO gap of over 400 points and the medium-term model fairly prices them at 1.39 while the ELO model goes as low as 1.29. Strong home form, dominant expected goals, and weak Guimaraes short-term form all align for the home win.

odds available at 09:45

Pre-match Analytics

Analytics data will be available closer to kick-off.

Market Odds

Pre-match odds — updated at 11:55

Sporting Lisbon

1.29

The Draw

6.80

Guimaraes

12.00

BTTS - Yes

1.97

BTTS - No

1.96

Under 1.5 Goals

6.60

Over 1.5 Goals

1.17

Under 2.5 Goals

2.84

Over 2.5 Goals

1.52

Under 3.5 Goals

1.73

Over 3.5 Goals

2.30