Short-term form and the ratings model both lean to Bari, and recent xG tilts slightly toward the hosts. The market has them as clear outsiders; our fair is in the low‑2s, so 3.05 is generous.

odds available at 09:45

All analysis models point towards significant value on a home win. The fair odds suggested by the form, goal difference, and ELO models are all substantially lower than the available market price. Bari also possesses a stronger ELO rating and superior recent form compared to their opponents.

odds available at 09:45

Bari's short-term form (1.5) is much better than Sudtirol's (0.67), and the goal-difference model gives Bari a 1.74 fair price. The ELO model also strongly favours Bari at 2.05, well below the market back price of 3.05, suggesting the market is overrating Sudtirol.

odds available at 09:45

The market has Bari as too big a price for a home side with the better recent form, the stronger rating profile, and a clear edge over Sudtirol in recent goal difference. Most of the analytical views make Bari a shorter price than this, so the home win looks underrated.

odds available at 09:45

Medium-term Poisson expected goals for both sides are very low (around 1.08 each) and the 12-match fair odds for Under 2.5 imply roughly 63% probability. Both teams have poor scoring form and Sudtirol's heavy negative goal difference suggests a tight, low-scoring Serie B encounter.

odds available at 09:45

Market prices BTTS Yes at 2.14 implying 46.7% probability, but statistical models suggest fair odds of 1.68 (6-match) and 2.29 (12-match). Away team shows terrible form at 0.67 points per game with -9 goal difference. The 12-match model leans no-BTTS, and the 6-match model strongly favours no. Laying at this price captures value given Sudtirol's attacking struggles.

odds available at 09:45