Attacking output and Poisson projections in both windows support a high‑scoring game. Multiple models put Over 2.5 comfortably above 60%, so 1.70 is value.

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St Etienne's short-term Poisson expected goals model projects a dominant home attacking output (2.26 xG vs 1.15 for Rodez), and both the short-term form model (fair odds ~1.60) and the medium-term goal difference model (fair odds ~2.02) indicate St Etienne should be priced shorter than the market's 1.83. The Poisson and form data converge to suggest the market is underrating the home side, offering approximately 8 percentage points of edge on this selection.

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St Etienne's strong attacking form and Rodez's decent away form suggest both teams are likely to score. The predicted BTTS odds of 1.63 align closely with the market, but the short-term Poisson expected goals and recent form support the likelihood of goals for both sides.

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St Etienne have strong recent form (2.5 points per game) and a high Poisson expected goals of 2.26, while Rodez are weaker. The predicted fair odds from the medium-term model (1.80) and short-term model (1.60) are both below the market back price of 1.83, indicating the market is undervaluing the home side.

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Both the 6-match and 12-match Poisson models produce combined expected goals of 3.41-3.59, with fair over 2.5 odds of 1.44-1.51 against a market price of 1.70. This is a Ligue 2 promotion playoff semifinal at Geoffroy-Guichard where St Etienne are unbeaten in seven home games and Rodez arrive in confident attacking form having won 3-2 in their last playoff match.

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Both short and medium-term expected goals models strongly support over 2.5 goals, reinforced by St Etienne's high home scoring output (2.26 xG) and positive goal difference trends for both teams in recent matches.

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The projected scoring level is high in both the short and medium term, with St Etienne expected to create plenty and Rodez still carrying enough attacking threat to contribute. The fair prices for this goals line come out shorter than the market, so the over is the value side.

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Both short and medium-term form models put fair odds for St Etienne around 1.60-1.80, well shorter than the offered 1.83. Strong home expected goals (2.19 over 12 matches) and a clear ELO edge support backing the home side at value.

odds available at 09:45