St Etienne have outstanding short-term form (2.17) and medium-term form (2.33), with strong Poisson xG of 2.39 and 2.04 over both windows. The ELO model fair odds are 1.84 and the short-term Poisson model gives ~1.95, both close to or above the market's 1.39, indicating the market has priced this tighter than most models suggest — but the goal-difference model gives 1.53, and overall signals strongly favour a home win. The market is offering a reasonable price for a confident home side.

odds available at 09:45

Models converge on St Etienne as a strong favourite: short-form 1.95, medium 1.98, ELO 1.84 - but short-form expected goals and the 167-point ELO edge, plus strong home form and positive goal difference, support a shorter price than 1.39 implies against a mid-table Rodez.

odds available at 09:45

The teams combine for projected totals of 4.18 and 3.52 goals, with neither side below 1.48 expected goals. Both BTTS model prices are materially shorter than 1.77.

odds available at 09:45

Both sides show strong attacking projections and the model makes both teams scoring a likely outcome. The market is underestimating that probability at 1.77.

odds available at 09:45