Celtic's superior ELO rating, strong medium-term form, and goal difference advantage make them clear favorites. The predicted fair odds for a Celtic win are lower than the market back price, indicating value.

odds available at 09:45

Despite St Johnstone's strong recent form, Celtic's superior ELO rating and significant goal difference advantage suggest they are the stronger side. The market price of 1.47 offers value against a team whose form may be inflated by weaker opposition.

odds available at 09:45

Combined Poisson xG is extremely high — 4.60 over 6 matches and 4.21 over 12 — with both teams contributing significantly to the goal count. The model's predicted Over 2.5 fair odds of 1.19-1.27 imply a probability of 79-84%, well above the market-implied 61.7%. Even after discounting for early-season noise and model uncertainty, the edge remains substantial at a conservative 72% estimate.

odds available at 09:45

Poisson projections strongly support high goal expectancies for both teams based on their recent form. Celtic's mounting defensive injury concerns and their impending sequence of Old Firm derbies provide strong external justification for this statistical signal.

odds available at 09:45

The ELO model rates Celtic a heavy favourite with fair odds of 1.40, versus a market back price of 1.47. Celtic's away form and goal difference over both windows dwarf St Johnstone's, and confirmed injury news suggests no major absentees for the trip to Perth.

odds available at 09:45

The goal projections are very high for both sides, and the recent and medium-term totals models both make over 2.5 clearly shorter than the available price. I am staking conservatively because the match-strength signals are less aligned, but the goals edge is still clear.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams show very high expected-goals output in both the short and medium-term windows (combined well over 4 goals per game), and the fair-odds models price over 2.5 goals far shorter than the 1.62 available. The both-teams-to-score model agrees, giving multiple aligned signals on a high-scoring match.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams show exceptionally high xG projections (home 2.37, away 2.23 over 6 matches) with the model pricing over 2.5 at 1.19-1.27. Even after discounting St Johnstone's numbers for the quality gap with Celtic, Celtic alone should contribute enough goals, and St Johnstone's strong recent form increases the likelihood of a high-scoring affair.

odds available at 09:45

Both the short-term and medium-term windows show very high combined goal expectancy (around 4.4 expected goals), putting fair odds for Over 2.5 around 1.19-1.27, yet the market offers 1.62. Both teams are scoring freely across both sample windows, so the market is materially underestimating the goal count.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams carry very high expected goals near or above two per game across short and medium windows, with strong recent form on each side. The goal models consistently price over 2.5 much shorter than the market, pointing to a clear high-scoring profile even with Celtic's ELO edge.

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Both short-term and medium-term Poisson models calculate fair odds between 1.19 and 1.27 for Over 2.5 Goals, backed by expected goal figures exceeding 4 goals per game combined. With both teams displaying prolific attacking form, the market price of 1.62 offers substantial value.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams show strong recent attacking output, with high expected-goals profiles on each side. The market's over-2.5 price looks generous for a match that projects plenty of chances.

odds available at 09:45