Both the short- and medium-term models project sub‑2.5 goal totals, and Poisson totals are below the line. The price offers a reasonable margin over fair.

odds available at 09:45

St Johnstone's strong short-term form and ELO rating advantage over Raith suggest a home win. The predicted fair odds (1.34-1.54) are below the market's 1.63, indicating value.

odds available at 09:45

St Johnstone have strong recent form (1.83 points per game last 6) and excellent goal difference (+9), with predicted fair odds (1.34-1.54) well below the market 1.63. Raith's poor form (0.67) and weak Poisson expected goals (0.66) support a home win.

odds available at 09:45

The Poisson model gives Raith only 0.41–0.66 expected goals, producing model BTTS probabilities of just 29–41%. This translates to BTTS-No fair odds of roughly 1.42–1.69, well below the market's 1.96 (51% implied). St Johnstone's strong home form (2.08 points per game over 12 matches) and dominant expected goals support a home-controlled match where the visitors struggle to score.

odds available at 09:45

Raith's scoring expectation is low in both time windows, while St Johnstone rate as the stronger side on form and overall strength. The BTTS model points clearly toward one team failing to score, so 'No' looks value.

odds available at 09:45

Every metric points to a dominant home performance, with form models and ELO rating fair odds tightly grouped from 1.34 to 1.54. The market's 1.63 back price offers a moderate but very clear edge for a home win.

odds available at 09:45