Recent attacking output is low and Poisson projects ~1.8–1.9 total xG. Both short- and medium-term models price Over 2.5 far higher, implying Under should be near 1.4–1.5, so 2.40 is generous.

odds available at 09:55

The market anticipates goals, but the expected goals data for both teams over their last 6 matches indicates a combined average of just 1.83 goals per game. The short and medium-term models heavily favour an under 2.5 goals outcome, making the market price of 2.40 exceptionally generous.

odds available at 09:55

Strong recent form from both teams, with St Pauli's home form and Greuther Furth's away form indicating a high likelihood of goals. The Poisson model also predicts a high expected goals total.

odds available at 09:55