Home side rates strongly across short- and medium-term form with a clear xG edge, and the ELO model also has them well on top. Market price implies a coin flip; the models see them winning about two-thirds.

odds available at 09:45

Stenhousemuir show outstanding form (2.33 over both 6 and 12 matches) with the short-term model giving fair odds of 1.49 and medium-term 1.42, both far below the 2.02 market price. ELO rating of 1675 vs Arbroath's 1439 further supports a strong home advantage. Market implies 49.5% probability while multiple aligned signals point to around 60%.

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This selection is backed by overwhelming statistical evidence. The home side possesses a massive advantage in ELO rating, is in excellent short-term form, and boasts a vastly superior goal difference, with every predictive model identifying significant value against the market price.

odds available at 09:45

Stenhousemuir's short-term form (2.33 ppg) and medium-term form (2.33) are both excellent, while Arbroath's are poor (0.67 and 0.75). The ELO model rates the home side 1675 vs 1439 and the goal-difference model gives a fair home price of 1.53, far shorter than the 2.02 available.

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Stenhousemuir have outstanding form (2.33 ppg both windows), a large ELO edge (1675 vs 1439), strong goal difference (+8 recently) and home xG advantage. Fair value models put home odds around 1.42-1.61.

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Stenhousemuir have much stronger short- and medium-term form, better goal-difference signals, and the ELO model also favours them. Multiple fair-price estimates put the home win shorter than the market.

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Stenhousemuir have dominant short- and medium-term form, a substantial expected-goals advantage and stronger ELO strength. Every main model prices the home win well below the market odds.

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All five models rate the home side between 1.42 and 1.61 against a market price of 2.02, one of the widest aligned gaps today. Home form is 2.33 points per game over both windows with strongly positive goal difference, while Arbroath's form is dreadful and the ELO gap exceeds 230 points.

odds available at 09:45

Every statistical model, including short-term and medium-term Poisson goal expectations, ELO strength, and goal difference projections, values Stenhousemuir fair odds between 1.42 and 1.61, creating outstanding value at 2.02. Stenhousemuir are in sparkling form as league leaders averaging 2.33 points per game, whereas Arbroath have managed only 0.67 points per game in recent outings.

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Stenhousemuir have clearly stronger short- and medium-term form, with goal-difference and strength indicators also supporting the home side. The market price is noticeably more generous than the statistical fair odds.

odds available at 09:45