The hosts have stronger recent results and the xG tilt is toward Stenhousemuir, while ELO rates this closer to a home-leaning matchup. That makes Partick at 1.84 far too short.

odds available at 09:45

Stenhousemuir sit 2nd in the Scottish Championship with a 4-game winning run (W4 D1 L0), while Partick are 3rd (W3 D2 L0) yet priced as strong 55% favourites away from home. All three analysis models strongly favour the home side: the short-term model gives Partick only a 20% chance, the medium-term 24%, and even the ELO model just 28%. The market appears to be overrating Partick based on name value rather than current form and league position.

odds available at 09:45

The market heavily favours Partick, yet the analysis strongly contradicts this, with medium-term Poisson and ELO models pricing a Partick win well above 3.50. Stenhousemuir boast superior short and medium-term form, and their undefeated start to the Championship confirms they are deeply undervalued by the market. Laying Partick offers a tremendous edge as their true win probability is closer to 25%.

odds available at 09:45

The ELO model favours Partick, and their recent form has been strong, making them a good bet to win this match.

odds available at 09:45

The form, ELO and goal-difference models all rate the home side stronger, pricing a Partick win at roughly 3.5-4.9 against a market-implied 54%. Stenhousemuir's superior recent form and home record make the visitors look significantly overrated, so I lay them conservatively given the size of the gap.

odds available at 09:45