Home side show stronger recent form and a clear ELO advantage; model prices make them favourites. The market rating them as underdogs at 3.40 is a misprice.

odds available at 09:45

Stenhousemuir displays superior short-term and medium-term form along with a higher ELO rating. All analysis models price a home win between 1.85 and 2.26, meaning the market odds of 3.40 are drastically overestimating the away side.

odds available at 09:45

Stenhousemuir are rated better by recent form, medium-term form and the ELO model, yet the market has them as outsiders. The 29.4% implied probability is too low even after allowing for league volatility.

odds available at 09:45

The market makes Raith the favourite despite Stenhousemuir having the better form in both the short and medium term, a superior ELO rating, and home advantage. The statistical models consistently make the home side favourite, so 3.40 looks generously priced.

odds available at 09:45

Stenhousemuir's strong home form and ELO advantage over Raith suggest the market is significantly undervaluing the home side, who should be favorites based on underlying performance metrics.

odds available at 09:45