Both teams have modest scoring projections and the short-term outlook is especially low-event, with little support for both teams scoring. The fair prices point to a tighter game than the market line implies, so under 2.5 goals stands out.

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Projected combined scoring is only 1.50 over the recent window and 1.84 over the longer sample. Both goal models make over 2.5 unlikely, so the market is offering an attractive price on the under.

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Combined expected goals are only around 1.5-1.8 and the goal models price over 2.5 at 3.60 to 5.24, far above the market. Oxford have scored almost nothing recently, making the under at 1.74 clear value.

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Combined expected goals are only about 1.5 and Oxford’s recent form is extremely weak. The model strongly favours a low-scoring game, giving under 2.5 a clear edge on the price.

odds available at 09:45