Market is too short on the home win relative to ELO and medium-term indicators, which price Stockport nearer 1.8–2.1. Laying at 1.61 exploits that gap.

odds available at 10:45

Stockport show exceptional short-term home form at 2.67 points per game over the last 6, while AFC Wimbledon average just 1.0 over the same window. The ELO model rates Stockport as heavy favourites with fair odds of 1.80, and the Poisson model concurs with fair odds around 1.91 — both significantly below the market back price of 1.60 is tighter, but the ELO advantage (1598 vs 1422) and dominant form make this a credible BACK.

odds available at 10:45

Stockport's excellent short-term form (2.67 PPG) comes with high expected goals (~2.0 xG home). The Poisson model predicts over 2.5 goals fair odds at 1.57-1.81 across windows, and BTTS fair odds of ~1.58-1.74 suggest plenty of goals. At 1.65 there's a small but consistent edge supported by both teams' attacking output.

odds available at 10:45