Stockport's short-term Poisson xG of 1.97 and strong home form combine with a fair home win probability from the form model of around 1.46-1.56, suggesting the market price of 1.59 still offers mild value. The ELO model strongly favours Stockport at 1.66, and Blackpool have very poor recent form at 0.75 average points per game over 12 matches.

odds available at 09:45

There are strong signals across all key metrics, including superior short-term form, a higher goal expectancy, and a very large ELO rating advantage. The models suggest value against a Blackpool side who have several players injured.

odds available at 09:45

Stockport's strong short-term form (2.00_6) and high Poisson expected goals (1.97_6) are supported by the ELO model's predicted odds (1.66), which are lower than the market's 1.59, indicating value in backing Stockport.

odds available at 09:45

Stockport have strong medium-term form (2.33 over 12) and dominant Poisson expected goals (1.97 vs 0.66). The ELO model gives fair odds of 1.66, the Poisson model 1.46-1.56, and Blackpool's form is extremely poor at 0.75 over 12 games. With +9 GD over 12 for Stockport, the edge is thin but supported by consistent signals. Low stake reflects the modest gap.

odds available at 09:45