Goal‑difference and Poisson projections put Over 3.5 in the mid‑30s%, yet the market is near 50–50; even with Stockport favored, the total looks inflated.

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Stockport have scored 16 goals in their first 7 league games including a 5-1 win over Wycombe and a 4-0 win at Wigan, making them League One's top scorers. Peterborough are 23rd with 5 points, recently lost their manager, and have conceded freely. The analysis shows Stockport's Poisson xG at 2.39 with total projected goals around 3.2, and the market's 49.5% implied probability for over 3.5 looks low given the attacking context on both sides.

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Stockport's strong form, goal difference, and Poisson expected goals (2.39 vs 0.66) make this a clear value bet. The ELO model and goal difference model both strongly favor a home win, with predicted fair odds (1.32) well below market odds (1.37).

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Stockport's ELO rating of 1657 dwarfs Peterborough's 1315, and the goal-difference model prices the home win at just 1.26. Peterborough have lost heavily with a -14 goal difference over 12 matches and a 0.17 form score, so the 1.37 back price offers solid value.

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Stockport are strong favourites, but the scoring profile points more to a controlled home win than a shootout. Both goal models make four or more goals less likely than the market implies, and Peterborough's attacking projection is low.

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Stockport's expected goals sit above 2.2 in both windows with strong home form and a huge ELO edge, and Peterborough concede heavily. Fair odds for over 2.5 sit clearly below the market price.

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Multiple signals align strongly for a Stockport win: dominant ELO advantage, superior short and medium-term home form, and a large Poisson expected goals edge. The market price of 1.37 (73% implied) is slightly generous versus the ELO fair value near 1.38 and the goal-difference model implying an even bigger gap, with Peterborough in dreadful form.

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Peterborough's projected scoring output is below one goal in both windows, alongside extremely poor recent form. Both statistical windows rate both teams scoring as less likely than the market price suggests.

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The goal-expectation models price over 2.5 goals at around 1.70 on both the short and medium windows (roughly 59% probability), while the market at 1.41 implies about 71%. Even accounting for Stockport's strong attacking output, the modelled total of around 3 goals supports the over landing less often than the market assumes.

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While the market anticipates a high-scoring encounter, Poisson expected goal projections place fair value for Under 3.5 Goals well below the market price. Peterborough's limited away goal creation further strengthens the case for a lower-scoring game.

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The projected goal total sits closer to three than the market's near coin-flip over 3.5 pricing suggests. With Peterborough's weak away attack, under 3.5 goals offers value.

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