Stockport are strong, but model blends put the home win around mid‑60s to high‑60s %, below the 72.5% implied by 1.38. The price looks too short across form- and ELO-based views, so laying the favourite offers value.

odds available at 09:45

All three models (form-based, goal-difference, and ELO) produce fair home win odds of 1.45–1.66, all significantly above the market lay price of 1.38. The market-implied probability of ~72.5% for a Stockport win exceeds every model estimate, suggesting the market is overrating Stockport. Laying at 1.38 offers value given the consistent model consensus that Stockport's true win probability sits closer to 60–65%.

odds available at 09:45

Stockport's strong short-term and medium-term form, superior goal difference, and consistent ELO rating advantage all point to a clear edge. The predicted fair odds for a home win (1.45-1.66) are significantly lower than the market back price (1.37), indicating value. The Poisson model also favors Stockport with higher expected goals.

odds available at 09:45

Stockport have dominant short-term form (2.17 points per game) and a +7 goal difference over the last 6 matches, while Port Vale average just 1 point per game with a -2 GD. The ELO model rates Stockport at 1626 vs 1325 for Port Vale, and all three predicted odds models (Poisson, GD, ELO) converge on fair odds well below the market's 1.37, indicating strong value on the home win.

odds available at 09:45

Statistical models consistently estimate a 43.2% probability for under 2.5 goals, exceeding the market's implied 38.8%. This edge is reinforced by Port Vale's weak recent away form and low expected goals output (under 1.0), reducing high-scoring likelihood.

odds available at 09:45

Port Vale's expected goals are below 1.0 in both windows and they have a negative goal difference, while Stockport are heavily dominant at home (ELO gap of 300). Fair value for BTTS Yes is around 1.84-2.06, suggesting BTTS No around 1.99 has slim back value with a clean-sheet-friendly profile for the strong favourite.

odds available at 09:45