Short- and medium-term indicators rate Stockport as clear favourites and the Poisson goals projection leans their way. The market price is well above the model fair, with ELO also onside.

odds available at 09:45

A clear and consistent value signal exists across all analytical models for a home victory. Stockport's strong recent form is in direct contrast to Stevenage's very poor away results. This, combined with a superior ELO rating, makes the offered odds appear very generous.

odds available at 09:45

Stockport's strong home form and Stevenage's poor away record create a clear advantage. The predicted home win odds (1.46) are significantly lower than the market back price (2.12), indicating value.

odds available at 09:45

Stockport have solid form (2.0 points per game over 6, 2.33 over 12) with a +12 goal difference over 12 matches, while Stevenage are poor at 0.83 and 0.5 points per game respectively. The Poisson model and ELO both favour Stockport, and the market price of 2.12 offers value against a struggling opponent.

odds available at 09:45

Strong recent home form and a clear ELO rating advantage favor the home side, with consistent signals from short-term and medium-term models showing fair odds for a home win below the market offering.

odds available at 09:45

Stockport's strong home form (2.00 PPG short-term, 2.33 medium-term), positive goal difference (+3/+12), and superior expected goals metrics across all models consistently indicate a win probability well above the market's 47.2% implied threshold, with no conflicting signals in the analysis.

odds available at 09:45

Stockport show the better recent form, the stronger scoring outlook, and a much healthier medium-term profile. The statistical fair prices consistently rate the home win shorter than the market, so the home side looks underrated here.

odds available at 09:45

Base and 12-match models price Stockport at 1.46 and 1.40 respectively, with ELO at 1.89 — all well shorter than 2.12. Stockport home form 2.0/2.33 vs Stevenage's poor 0.83/0.50 away form, and a clear xG advantage support back value.

odds available at 09:45

Multiple models price Under 2.5 around 1.90-2.04 fair odds, while market offers 1.68. Stockport's strong defensive record (0.66-0.91 xG conceded) and Stevenage's anemic attack (same xG range) suggest a low-scoring game. Short-term and medium-term Poisson models both predict under 2 goals combined. Home side's moderate scoring meets visitor's inability to create chances.

odds available at 09:45