All three statistical models converge strongly on Stuttgart: short-term fair odds 1.33, medium-term 1.54, ELO model 1.39, and goal-difference model 1.26 — all materially below the market price of 1.59. Stuttgart's Poisson xG of 2.12 vs Werder's 0.50 over the last six games reflects dominant form, while Werder's medium-term form score of 0.50 is near the bottom of all fixtures today. The market is meaningfully overestimating Werder's chances.

odds available at 09:45

All models align on Stuttgart being undervalued, which is backed by their excellent recent form and a very large ELO rating advantage over an out-of-form Werder Bremen.

odds available at 09:45

Stuttgart's dominant form, goal difference, and ELO rating suggest they are significantly undervalued by the market, offering strong value.

odds available at 09:45

Stuttgart have dominant form (2.5 points per game over last 6, 2.17 over 12) with a +8 goal difference and 2.12 expected goals, while Werder Bremen have just 0.5 points per game in both windows. The ELO model (1712 vs 1374) and all predicted odds models point to Stuttgart being significantly undervalued at 1.59.

odds available at 09:45

All three models agree Stuttgart should be strong favourites: Poisson model at 1.33, medium-term model at 1.54, and ELO model at 1.39. Market price of 1.59 offers value. Stuttgart are in superb form (2.50 PPG short-term, +8 GD, +13 GD medium-term) while Bremen are abysmal (0.50 PPG both windows, -8 GD over 12). The ELO gap of 338 points confirms a significant quality difference.

odds available at 09:45

Fair home win odds from models are 1.33-1.54 versus market 1.59, indicating clear value. Excellent short-term home form at 2.5 points per game dominates away's 0.5, with strong alignment from ELO ratings, goal difference, and Poisson expectations.

odds available at 09:45

Stuttgart's short-term form is excellent, Werder's is poor, and the expected-goals numbers strongly favour the home side. The ELO view and the win models all make Stuttgart shorter than the market price, so the home win still has value.

odds available at 09:45

Stuttgart's excellent form and dominant goal difference over recent matches suggest they are heavily undervalued by the market. With multiple models pricing the home win below 1.45, backing Stuttgart at 1.59 presents a highly confident edge.

odds available at 09:45