Stuttgart's 12-month form is excellent (2.42 points per game) and combined with Wolfsburg's weak defensive record, the 12-month Poisson expected goals strongly support goals. Both the statistical and goal-difference models put fair odds for over 2.5 at approximately 1.43-1.75, and the ELO model heavily favours Stuttgart as dominant home side (rated 328 points higher). The market at 1.43 aligns with fair value but offers a solid play in what should be a goals-heavy game.