Both teams project very low attacking output in both the short-term and medium-term numbers, and the goals models make a high-scoring game much less likely than the market suggests. The scoring profile also points against both teams finding plenty of chances.

odds available at 09:45

Both sample windows project fewer than two total goals, and the statistical prices strongly favour a low-scoring match. The market's 54.1% implied probability appears too low.

odds available at 09:45

The goal-expectancy models project a low-scoring game, with combined expected goals under two and the fair price for over 2.5 goals well above the market's. That makes the 1.85 on under 2.5 goals look generous given both teams' modest attacking output.

odds available at 09:45