The market prices Sudtirol at 61% to win, but all analysis models disagree sharply — short-term Poisson gives 6.31 fair odds (16%), medium-term 2.81 (36%), and ELO 2.98 (34%). Sudtirol have collected just 2 points from their last 5 games with a goal difference of -11 over 6 matches. Although they desperately need a win to avoid the playout, Juve Stabia have superior quality and recent H2H results (winning 2 of the last 3 meetings), and the desperation factor alone cannot justify a 61% probability.

odds available at 09:45

Strong short-term home form and a favourable ELO rating suggest Sudtirol has a higher chance of winning than the market implies.

odds available at 09:45