The goal models point to a low-scoring match, with both teams projected below one goal in the shorter and medium windows and over 2.5 goals priced much longer by the analysis than by the market. The market implies 53.2%, but I estimate the under closer to 63.0%.

odds available at 09:45

Both recent analysis windows project low combined scoring, with neither team reaching one expected goal in the medium-term sample. The resulting under probability is comfortably above the market's 53.2%.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams project very low expected goals (around 0.67 each recently, under 1.0 over twelve games) and the goals models price over 2.5 far above the market in both windows, implying under 2.5 is much likelier than the 53% the 1.88 price suggests. Consistent low-scoring signals across both sides support the under.

odds available at 09:45