Huge recent-form and xG edge for the hosts, and both the medium-term and ELO models make them clear favourites. Market implies ~51% but fair looks closer to low 60s.

Darmstadt's short-term form is exceptional — averaging nearly 3 points per game over the last 6 matches — while Dusseldorf has been woeful with a near-zero form score. The Poisson model projects Darmstadt at 2.52 expected goals versus just 0.49 for the visitors. All three statistical models (Poisson, goal-difference, and ELO) place fair home win odds between 1.23 and 1.90, making the market price of 1.95 a significant overlay offering strong value.