Combined xG of 3.46-4.40 across model windows generates fair odds of 1.23-1.49 for over 2.5 — substantial gap to the market's 1.81. Southampton are on a seven-game winning streak pushing for automatic promotion and have scored freely (4 of last 5 over 2.5 goals). Swansea conceded 5 goals in their last 2 home matches and have nothing to play for, creating an open contest.

odds available at 09:45

This is one of the clearest high-scoring profiles on the card, with both teams showing strong attacking expectation and the recent form of the away side particularly sharp. The short-term and medium-term goal models both support a game reaching at least three goals.

odds available at 09:45