All three models make Swindon clear favorites and the ELO difference is sizeable; Poisson has a strong attacking edge for the hosts, yet the market has them near even money.

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All three models converge strongly on Swindon: short-term fair odds 1.58, medium-term 1.54, and ELO model 1.61 — all well below the market's 2.24. Accrington have a near-zero short-term form score (0.17/6) and a wretched medium-term record (0.42/12), while Swindon carry excellent short-term momentum (2.17/6) and a significantly superior ELO rating. Market-implied probability of 44.6% is well below my estimated true probability of ~61%.

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All analysis models strongly favour a Swindon win, with predicted odds significantly lower than the market price. Swindon's strong home form contrasts sharply with Accrington's terrible away record and defensive injury crisis, making the home side excellent value.

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Swindon's strong short-term form and Poisson expected goals (2.12 vs 0.99) suggest the market is undervaluing their home advantage. Predicted fair odds (1.58) are lower than market odds (2.24).

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Swindon's 2.17 short-term form and 2.12 expected goals contrast sharply with Accrington's 0.17 form and 0.99 expected goals. The ELO model prices the home win at 1.61 and the goal-difference model at 2.15, both well below the generous 2.24 market back price.

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Swindon's dominant short-term form (2.17 points per game) and superior expected goals (2.12 vs 0.99) align consistently across short-term, medium-term, and ELO models, indicating a true win probability near 63%—significantly higher than the market's implied 44.6%. Accrington's minimal recent form (0.17 PPG) and negative goal difference reinforce this clear value opportunity without narrative dependency.

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This is one of the clearest home edges on the card: strong short-term and medium-term home form, a big expected-goal advantage, and a large ratings gap all point the same way. The market is still offering well above the models' home price.

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Swindon's short and medium-term form averages are exceptionally strong compared to Accrington's poor recent run, and both the Poisson xG model and ELO ratings heavily favour a home win. The predicted fair odds are consistently in the 1.55 to 1.61 range, making the market price of 2.24 outstanding value.

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Swindon show excellent recent form versus a very poor Accrington short-term run, with a substantial ELO gap and short-term fair odds much lower than the market price. Multiple signals align on the home win.

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Swindon's strong recent home form and clear superiority in goal expectation contrast sharply with Accrington's poor away performances. Both the form-based and ELO models heavily favour the home side, highlighting a clear mispricing by the market.

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Swindon have a clear form and attacking projection advantage, while Accrington's recent return is very weak. The main match-odds and ELO views all make Swindon much shorter than the market, so the 44.6% implied price looks too low.

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Swindon is in excellent form with three consecutive home wins, while Accrington has lost four straight on the road. The statistical Poisson and ELO models heavily favor a home win, predicting fair odds of around 1.58 compared to the generous 2.24 offered by the market.

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Swindon show much stronger short and medium-term form against an Accrington side in very poor form, with a huge ELO gap and the models pricing a home win near 1.54-1.61. The market price of 2.24 looks clearly too generous.

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Swindon have a major short- and medium-term form advantage, while the statistical and ELO models price them much shorter than the market. Their projected scoring advantage also supports a home win.

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Multiple signals align on Swindon: superb short-term form (2.17 points per game versus 0.17), a dominant expected goals edge (2.12 versus 0.99), and both Poisson and ELO models pricing the home win around 1.55-1.61. The market at 2.24 implies only about 45%, a clear underestimation of the home side.

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Every model window agrees heavily on the home side: short-term and medium-term form plus ELO all price a home win around 1.55-1.61 while the market is 2.24. Accrington’s recent away form is extremely poor, so the market looks well behind the numbers.

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Swindon display strong short-term and medium-term form alongside superior expected goals figures compared to Accrington's poor recent output. All underlying models, including Poisson xG and ELO strength ratings, strongly align on a fair home price well below the current market odds.

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Swindon's short-term form, expected-goal dominance, and strength rating all point clearly toward a home win against a struggling Accrington side. The statistical fair odds are much shorter than the market price, making 2.24 generous.

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Swindon's short-term home form (2.17 ppg) dwarfs Accrington's (0.17), and the Poisson goal expectation strongly favours the home side. The fair-value models cluster around 1.55-1.61 for a home win while the market offers 2.24, giving a clear value gap, and the ELO rating also puts Swindon well ahead.

odds available at 09:45