Arsenal carry a strong short-term form score of 2.0 and excellent medium-term form of 1.92, with a goal difference of +13 over twelve matches. Tottenham have managed just 0.58 points per game over the medium term and their ELO rating is 207 points below Arsenal's. The ELO model places the away win probability at around 59% (implied odds 1.69), and the goal-difference model also heavily favours Arsenal. The market at 1.58 implies 63.3% which looks too low.