Short- and medium-term form plus ELO lean away from Spurs, with fair home prices near 3.0 rather than odds-on. Opposing the home win captures a large model-to-market mismatch.

odds available at 09:45

The analysis strongly favours Leeds: better short-term form (1.33 vs 0.33), positive goal difference over 6 games (+6 vs -2), and all three models (Poisson, goal-difference, ELO) estimate Leeds' fair odds between 2.42-2.81 — dramatically lower than the market's 4.60. The ELO model even gives Leeds a slight edge. Research confirms Leeds are already safe and in good form (unbeaten run building), while Tottenham have a dreadful home record — not winning at home since December. The 4.60 market price implies 21.7%; the models and context suggest the true probability is around 26%, providing meaningful value at these odds.

odds available at 09:45

All analysis models suggest Tottenham are significantly overrated by the market, with fair odds estimated to be closer to 3.00. While recent news suggests Spurs have won their last two games, their underlying home form is poor, and the analysis is based on a larger dataset showing their terrible form over the last six matches. This indicates a clear value opportunity in laying the home side.

odds available at 09:45

Tottenham's very poor recent home form contrasts with Leeds' solid away form and positive goal difference, while ELO and other models suggest fair home odds around 3.0, meaning the market overestimates Tottenham's chances.

odds available at 09:45