Form and baseline tendencies point to a cagey, low-xG matchup that leans toward unders. Multiple models make BTTS No a better-than-coinflip, while the market prices it below 50%.

Both models strongly point to a low-scoring match — the Poisson model projects just 1.0 xG for Udinese and 1.33 for Fiorentina, giving a combined expected total well under 3.5 goals. The fair odds for over 3.5 are modelled at 4.84 (short-term) and 7.81 (medium-term), meaning under 3.5 is a high-probability outcome, and the market's 1.30 back price offers solid value.