Both Poisson projections are low (sum well under 2.5) and both time windows price the over much bigger, pointing to a low-scoring game.

odds available at 09:55

Both the recent and medium-term goal projections point to a low-scoring game, with modest expected goals for both sides. The market is pricing this closer to a coin flip than the models suggest, so the under looks meaningfully too big.

odds available at 09:55

Both scoring projections indicate a low-total match, while the models put both teams scoring at only around one-third probability. Even allowing for uncertainty, the 50% market threshold is too low for the No selection.

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Both short- and medium-window Poisson projections point to a very low combined goal total, with both sides showing poor recent attacking output. The market prices under 2.5 near a coin-flip, which is too short given the low expected goals.

odds available at 09:55

The Poisson model expects few goals from either side over both windows, and both form windows make Over 2.5 a big outsider. The goals model has been overconfident before, so I have cut its 72-77% Under estimate down to 58%. That still beats the market's 54%, but I am keeping the stake low.

odds available at 09:55

Poisson expected goals projections are low across both the six-match and twelve-match windows, totalling just 1.84 and 1.67 goals respectively. The model's fair odds for Over 2.5 Goals sit at 3.60 and 4.28, indicating substantial value on Under 2.5 Goals at 1.86.

odds available at 09:55