There is clear value in this selection based on the statistical models. The home side is in dominant form, while the away team has been struggling significantly, suggesting they will find it very difficult to score.

odds available at 09:45

Union St Gilloise's dominant form, significantly higher ELO rating, and strong predictive model support for a home win. The market odds heavily undervalue their probability of winning.

odds available at 09:45

Union St Gilloise have won 2.33 points per game over their last six and 2.67 over twelve, with a huge goal difference advantage and an ELO rating nearly 550 points higher than the visitors. The ELO model prices them at 1.17 and the goal-difference model at 1.13, both shorter than the 1.28 available, so the market is underestimating a dominant home side against an opponent with 0.33 form.

odds available at 09:45

Union have excellent short and medium-term form while OH Leuven are near the bottom with very weak away record. All three model variants (base, ELO, goal difference) agree Union should be priced closer to 1.17-1.29, matching the market, and the significant ELO gap (1882 vs 1333) and strong home expected goals support a comfortable win.

odds available at 09:45

Union are rated far higher on ELO and are in excellent short and medium-term home form with a huge goal difference, while the visitors are badly out of form. The fair-value models imply a win probability well above the market-implied 78%, giving clear back value at 1.28.

odds available at 09:45

Elite home form and goal difference against very poor away numbers, with one of the largest ELO gaps on the card. Short price still sits a little longer than the fair ELO and goal-difference odds.

odds available at 09:45