Both windows point to a very low-scoring game: combined expected goals are around 1.5 and the BTTS model strongly leans to No. Multiple models price the under far shorter than the market.

odds available at 10:45

Cremonese have been in terrible form with a score of just 0.5 over the last 6 matches and a shocking goal difference of -9, while their Poisson expected goals of only 0.33 suggests they are extremely poor offensively. The short-term statistical model gives Cremonese fair odds of 9.48, far higher than the market's 4.30, indicating the market is significantly overestimating their chances of winning.

odds available at 10:45

There is a major discrepancy between the model's goal expectancy and the market price. The home side's short-term expected goals are exceptionally low, and statistical models project fair odds for this outcome to be much shorter, suggesting the market is overestimating the likelihood of goals.

odds available at 10:45

Fiorentina's recent form and expected goals are significantly better than Cremonese's. The ELO model and goal difference models also favor Fiorentina, making the market odds of 2.00 attractive for a back bet.

odds available at 10:45