Both short- and medium-term goal models price Over 2.5 much bigger, with Poisson totals around 1.8 xG. Albacete’s recent away output is weak and the models rate BTTS as unlikely — all pointing to an unders game.

odds available at 09:45

The scoring projections are low, especially for Albacete, and the away side's recent form and goal difference are poor. Both short-term and medium-term goal models make both teams scoring less likely than the market implies.

odds available at 09:45

Goal expectation models confidently project a low-scoring match, with short-term expected goals for both teams combining for under 2.0. The statistical models price Over 2.5 goals at 3.60, indicating that the market's offering of 1.95 on the Under provides a substantial edge.

odds available at 09:45

The goal expectation is low, especially with Albacete projected below one goal in the shorter window. The fair prices for over 2.5 goals are much bigger than the market, so the under looks underpriced at 1.95.

odds available at 09:45

The offered price implies 51.3%, compared with an estimated 66.0% based on the two analysis windows. Projected combined goals range from only 1.84 to 2.17, supporting a low-scoring match.

odds available at 09:45

Recent Poisson projections show a low combined expected goals total driven by Albacete’s poor away attack and leaky defence. Short-term over 2.5 fair odds sit well above 3.0, so under at 1.95 is a clear undersell of the low-scoring profile.

odds available at 09:45

Albacete's limited offensive expectation (0.67 away xG) and Valladolid's low goal output point toward a low-scoring match. Poisson fair value models estimate Under 2.5 Goals fair odds at 1.38 (short term) and 1.58 (medium term), giving solid value at 1.95.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams' recent and medium-term expected goals are low, and the fair price for over 2.5 goals is far longer than the market suggests. Under 2.5 goals has value in what projects as a tight, low-scoring Segunda match.

odds available at 09:45

Both the short-term and medium-term goal models put combined expected goals low (under 2.2), giving a fair under-2.5 probability well above what the market price implies. Valladolid's strong home form comes with modest scoring output and Albacete's attack has been very weak, supporting a low-scoring outcome.

odds available at 09:45

Albacete's very low away goal expectation and weak recent away form (0.67 points per game, heavily negative goal difference) make at least one clean sheet likely, with the model putting both-teams-to-score 'No' at fair odds of roughly 1.50-1.77 against the market's 2.14. The low-scoring away profile supports the value.

odds available at 09:45

The goal models expect a low-scoring game, with about 1.8 to 2.2 expected goals, and their fair odds put under 2.5 at 63-72%. The market prices it at only 51%, and Albacete's attack has been weak.

odds available at 09:45