Short‑term and medium‑term models price the home win nearer 1.9–2.0 versus 2.44 on offer. Recent home xG edge and a likely low‑scoring game support the hosts; ELO leans to Eibar so stake is moderate.

odds available at 09:45

Eibar's recent form and xG figures suggest attacking potential, while Valladolid's defensive record is questionable. The predicted BTTS odds (3.69) are more conservative, but the market's 2.02 offers value given the teams' recent trends.

odds available at 09:45

Both statistical models predict low-scoring outcomes, with fair odds for over 2.5 goals around 4.28-4.72. Eibar's expected goals are particularly low at 0.5, and Valladolid's are modest at 1.17. The market price of 1.68 for under 2.5 goals aligns well with the statistical expectation of a tight match.

odds available at 09:45

Combined Poisson xG is extremely low at 1.67 (6-match) and 1.58 (12-match), both well below the 2.5 threshold. Both models price over 2.5 fair odds at 4.28-4.72, implying under 2.5 probability of 77-79% versus the market-implied 59.5%. Eibar's away xG of just 0.50 in both windows is particularly suppressive, and Valladolid's home scoring output is moderate at best.

odds available at 09:45

This sets up as a low-scoring Segunda game, with both teams carrying modest attacking numbers and Eibar's goal projection particularly low. The statistical totals prices point to the under being longer than it should be.

odds available at 09:45

The market offers 1.68 for Under 2.5 Goals, implying roughly a 60% chance. However, short- and medium-term Poisson metrics price the Over at upwards of 4.20, heavily indicating a low-scoring match and exposing clear value on the Under.

odds available at 09:45