Venezia have exceptional form (2.5 points per game over last 6, 2.75 over last 12) with an xG of 2.39 goals per game, and every model — Poisson, goal difference, and ELO (rating 1760 vs 1507) — firmly favours a home win at odds well below 1.46. The market price of 1.46 implies only 68.5% probability while the models suggest closer to 73-75%.

odds available at 09:45

Venezia's dominant form and goal difference, along with the ELO model's strong preference, indicate they are undervalued at these odds.

odds available at 09:45

Venezia has excellent recent form with 2.5 points per game over the last 6 matches and strong expected goals data. The statistical models all point to a home win being more likely than the market suggests, with the ELO model showing fair odds of 1.56 compared to the market's 1.46.

odds available at 09:45

Venezia's exceptional home Poisson xG of 2.39 over both 6 and 12 matches is dominant. Combined xG is 3.54 (6-match) and 3.21 (12-match), with predicted fair odds of 1.46 and 1.60 respectively - both below the market price of 1.83. Venezia's outstanding form (2.75 PPG over 12, +16 GD) drives significant goal expectation.

odds available at 09:45