The analysis shows FC Magdeburg has significantly better short-term form (1.5 vs 1.5, but with higher Poisson expected goals of 2.64 vs 0.81) and the predicted odds (1.32) are much lower than the market back price (2.46), indicating value. The ELO model also favors Magdeburg (3.6 vs 12.19).

odds available at 09:55

The Poisson model projects a very high away expected goals figure (2.64) against a weak home side with a poor goal difference, and the medium-term form also favours Magdeburg. The market price of 2.46 is generous relative to the model's fair odds of around 1.32-1.36.

odds available at 09:55

The short-term Poisson xG is very high at 3.45 combined (0.81 + 2.64), driven by Osnabruck's terrible defensive record with a -9 goal difference over 6 matches. The model's short-term fair odds of 1.49 for over 2.5 sit comfortably below the market price. The 12-match signal is weaker but still supportive with 2.70 combined xG.

odds available at 09:45

Strong home form and goal difference suggest a low-scoring match, with Under 3.5 Goals being the most likely outcome.

odds available at 09:55