Villarreal’s short-term form and expected-goals profile are dominant, and both form-based and ELO models price the home win well below 1.74. The market underestimates the hosts.

odds available at 09:45

All available models, including those for recent form, medium-term form, and ELO rating, indicate that the market is underestimating the probability of a home win. The statistical case is very strong, backed by a huge disparity in recent form, expected goals, and ELO strength.

odds available at 09:45

Villarreal's strong short-term form (2.5 points per game) and Poisson expected goals (2.26) are well above Levante's (0.33 form, 0.49 xG). The predicted home win odds (1.29 short-term, 1.52 medium-term) are significantly lower than the market back price of 1.74, indicating value.

odds available at 09:45

Villarreal have excellent short-term form (2.5 ppg) with a strong Poisson expected goals of 2.26, while Levante have dreadful form (0.33 ppg) and only 0.49 expected goals. The predicted fair odds (1.29-1.52 across models) are well below the market back price of 1.74, signalling substantial BACK value on the home win.

odds available at 09:45

Villarreal have a big edge in recent form, expected goals and overall team strength, while Levante rate very weak on the short-term numbers. The fair home price from the analysis is notably shorter than the market, so the home win looks underpriced.

odds available at 09:45

Villarreal's underlying metrics highlight a massive quality gap, with their short-term form and expected goals significantly outperforming Levante. The ELO model suggests fair odds should be much lower than the generous market price. Despite Levante's desperation to avoid relegation, Villarreal is highly motivated to secure a top-four spot and offers exceptional value at these odds.

odds available at 09:45