Strong recent home form and higher expected goals support Villarreal, and the ELO model prices them sub-2.00. Market has them closer to a coin flip than our estimates.

odds available at 10:45

Villarreal carry strong home form (2.0 points per game over 6 matches, 2.33 over 12) with a high ELO rating of 1719. The ELO model prices a Villarreal win at 1.72, while the statistical model suggests 1.59 — both well below the market's 2.04. The Poisson model projects Villarreal at 2.19 xG over 12 matches, reflecting genuine attacking quality against a Real Sociedad side averaging just 1.08 points per game over the medium term.

odds available at 10:45

A consistent signal across all models indicates value in backing the home team. Villarreal's excellent medium-term form and a significant ELO rating advantage suggest their probability of winning is greater than the market odds imply.

odds available at 10:45

Villarreal's recent form and ELO rating suggest they are slightly favored, with the ELO model predicting fair odds of 1.72. The market odds of 2.04 offer value for a Villarreal win.

odds available at 10:45

Villarreal has strong home form and the ELO model suggests fair odds of 1.72 for a home win, significantly lower than the market's 2.04. Villarreal's expected goals are substantially higher than Real Sociedad's, particularly over the medium term, indicating the market is underestimating their chances.

odds available at 10:45

Villarreal's strong home form (2.0 and 2.33 over 6 and 12 matches) and significant ELO advantage (1719 vs 1520) point to the home side being underpriced. The ELO model gives fair odds of 1.72, the Poisson model 1.59-1.77, and the short-term goal model 2.23. At 2.04 back (implied 49%), the true probability sits around 54% based on weighted model outputs.

odds available at 10:45