Every model strongly favours Coventry — the goal-difference 12-match model implies a fair price as low as 1.17, the ELO model 1.82, and the short-term form model 2.05 — against a market of 2.02. Research confirms Coventry are Championship winners with 93 league goals, unbeaten in seven, while Watford have lost four straight and have nothing to play for; some rotation risk for Coventry is factored into the moderate stake.

odds available at 09:55