West Brom's short-term form model gives a fair price of 1.90, their goal-difference model 2.02, and the ELO model 2.01 — all above the market back of 1.78, indicating the market may be slightly overestimating West Brom's chances. However, West Brom's strong short-term home form (2.0 points per game last 6), positive goal difference, and superior Poisson xG (1.81 vs 1.16) all support the home win. The market price of 1.78 is the tightest of the model estimates so a modest stake reflects the mixed signal.

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Multiple signals align for West Brom: strong short-term form, superior goal difference, and predicted odds of 1.90 (all models) versus the market's 1.78. The Poisson model also expects higher home goal expectation, reinforcing the value.

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West Brom have strong recent form and a clear ELO edge over Charlton. The Poisson model and goal-difference projections both favour a home win, and the market price of 1.78 offers value against the model's fair odds.

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Strong short-term defensive metrics and a low expected goals projection for the away side indicate a tight affair, making the under on total goals an attractive proposition.

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West Brom's short-term form and ELO edge both favour a home win, with the form-model fair odds notably shorter than the market price. Strong home goal difference over the medium term supports the value.

odds available at 09:45