The away side rates clearly stronger on recent form and expected goals, and ELO also tilts their way. Market odds imply only a low-40s chance, which our blend materially exceeds.

odds available at 10:45

Southampton show very strong recent form (1.83 points per game over the last 6 matches) against a poor West Brom side (0.83 per game over the same period). The goal difference model and Poisson model both heavily favour Southampton, with fair odds around 1.65-1.85, making the market price of 2.36 significantly generous. The ELO model also supports an away win, and Southampton's superior xG output over both windows reinforces this value call.

odds available at 10:45

All statistical models, including those based on short and long-term form, ELO ratings, and goal difference, indicate Southampton are undervalued. The away team's excellent recent form contrasts sharply with the home team's struggles, making this a strong value selection.

odds available at 10:45

Southampton's recent form and expected goals are superior to West Brom's. The market odds for Southampton are higher than the predicted fair value, suggesting value in backing them.

odds available at 14:45