Totals models project a lower-scoring game than the market despite Liverpool’s favoritism. Over 2.5 is priced too short relative to form and xG baselines.

Liverpool have a significant ELO advantage (1625 vs 1389) with the ELO model placing their fair odds at 1.61, still above the market price of 1.51. However, the goal-difference and medium-term statistical models converge strongly on Liverpool, and Wolves have very poor form (0.5 points per game over 12 matches) and a deeply negative goal difference. Capping risk at 2% per today's discipline focus on short-priced favourites.