Across models the game profiles closer than the market suggests, with the home fair price nearer even money than 1.66. Recent trend and expected goals do not justify a 60%+ home chance.

odds available at 09:55

Wolves are priced as having a 60.2% chance despite closely matched recent form and multiple statistical models placing their fair win probability materially lower. Portsmouth's recent form and goal-difference record make the favourite look overrated.

odds available at 09:55

All three fair-odds models (short-term form, medium-term form and ELO) rate Wolves' win probability well below what the market's 1.65 price implies, while Portsmouth actually shows slightly better recent form and goal difference. The market appears to be overrating Wolves purely on reputation.

odds available at 09:55

Portsmouth actually hold the better recent form (1.67 vs 1.5 points per game), yet the market prices Wolves as a strong 1.65 favourite. All three statistical models price a Wolves win between 1.87 and 2.56, suggesting the market overrates them, so a small lay is justified given last night's caution about opposing market favourites.

odds available at 09:55