Both teams project low attacking output, with combined expected goals below two across the form windows. The goal models and the low both-teams-to-score expectation point to a tighter game than the market suggests.

odds available at 09:55

Every model favours Wolves strongly, with the ELO model rating them well ahead and fair odds around 1.48-1.61. Stoke arrive in dreadful form with zero points in their last six and a heavily negative goal difference, while Wolves hold decent home form and a large ELO edge. The market price of 1.61 sits at or above fair value, offering value on a clear home favourite.

odds available at 09:55

Both short- and medium-term expected goals totals sit around 1.8, pointing to a low-event game. Fair odds for over 2.5 are above 3.5 while the market still prices under at only 2.16, creating clear value on the under.

odds available at 09:55

Both short-term and medium-term Poisson goal models indicate a low-scoring encounter, projecting Stoke's expected goals below 0.6 and combined expected goals under 1.85. Fair odds for Under 2.5 Goals are calculated under 1.40, creating a massive probability edge against market odds of 2.16.

odds available at 09:55